Nets hold off Cavs

Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Deron Williams recorded a double-double with 27 points and 10 assists as the Nets held off the Cavaliers 99-96 at Quicken Loans Arena.

Kris Humphries, who left Friday's shootaround with an illness, fought through it scoring 18 points and pulling down 11 boards. Anthony Morrow added 22 points and six rebounds.

The Nets have now won three of four, closing out a three game road trip. New Jersey returns home Sunday to take on Toronto.

Kyrie Irving led the way for Cleveland scoring a career-high 32 points including 21 in the fourth quarter. Antawn Jamison added 20 points and six rebounds and Ramon Sessions scored 11 off the bench as the Cavaliers dropped their fifth game in the last six tries.

Cleveland will travel to Boston in its next contest on Sunday.

The Cavaliers, who trailed by as many as 17 in the fourth, had the margin down just six with 24.9 seconds to play.

Sundiata Gaines missed two from the line for the Nets, and Anderson Varejao's deep two with 16.9 seconds left put his team down 97-93. Video replay confirmed Varejao's toe was barely touching the line.

The Cavaliers were forced to foul and Morrow calmly hit two free throws to ice the victory for the Nets.

A meaningless three from Irving counted as time expired to make the final score closer than the game really was.

Back-to-back Jordan Farmar layups gave the Nets a 25-18 lead with 3:03 left to play in the first frame and the quarter ended with the Nets leading, 30-20.

Neither team was able to get it going in the second until a Humphries layup with 3:26 to go sparked an 11-0 run for the Nets. Irving stopped the run with four consecutive points, but the Cavs entered halftime trailing, 47-37.

The Nets, who entered the game leading the NBA in three-pointers made, found their stroke from outside in the third as they hit five of their eight three- pointers to take a 72-61 lead entering the final stanza.

Game Notes

MarShon Brooks (Achilles) missed his third straight game for the Nets, while teammate Mehmet Okur (back) missed the game and will have MRI on Saturday...The Cavaliers beat the Nets 50-26 in points in the paint...The Nets got their first win (1-11) when being outrebounded by their opponent...The Nets shot 39 percent from behind the arc.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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