Rays, Red Sox start series at Fenway

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays can deal the final blow to the Boston Red Sox' playoff hopes this week, as the American League East rivals open a three-game set at Fenway Park.

The Rays come into tonight's opener trailing the New York Yankees by 2 1/2 games in the American League East. The Red Sox, though, are 10 games back in the divisional race.

Boston did not help its cause any this weekend, as it was swept in a three- game set by the Chicago White Sox, losing both ends of a doubleheader on Saturday, then blowing a ninth-inning lead on Sunday before falling 7-5.

Victor Martinez hit a two-run homer and David Ortiz added a two-run double for the Red Sox, who stumbled to their sixth loss in eight contests.

Jonathan Papelbon (5-6) took the loss and was saddled with his seventh blown save of the year, charged with four runs and two hits with a pair of walks over 1 1/3 innings.

"We worked hard and went to the ninth with a two-run lead," said Boston manager Terry Francona. "We felt pretty good about ourselves. But then we walk away an hour later with a loss and it doesn't feel good."

Heading to the hill for the Red Sox tonight will be left-hander Jon Lester, who has won four of his last five starts. Lester beat the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, but allowed five runs and eight hits in six innings. He is 15-8 on the year with a 3.27 ERA.

Lester beat the Rays two starts ago with a terrific effort and is 8-3 lifetime against them with a 3.86 ERA in 15 starts.

Tampa, meanwhile, failed to gain any ground on the Yankees on Sunday, as it dropped an 8-7 decision to the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a three-game set.

Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Rocco Baldelli all hit two-run homers in defeat for the Rays, while Dan Wheeler (2-2) was charged with the loss after giving up two runs on two walks after getting just one out for Tampa Bay.

Getting the call for the Rays tonight will be righty Jeff Niemann, who has had two awful outings after a stint on the disabled list. After allowing 10 runs in 3 1/3 innings on August 25, Niemann was again charged with the loss last Tuesday against Toronto, which battered him for seven runs and seven hits in five innings.

Niemann, who is 10-5 on the year with a 3.97 ERA, is 2-1 in three starts against the Red Sox with a 3.94 ERA.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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